贸易开放对加纳经济增长的影响(1986 - 2017)

P. Aggrey
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引用次数: 1

摘要

贸易开放被认为是经济增长的媒介。经济理论支持这样的主张:贸易增强竞争,促进大市场,技术转移,从而推动经济增长。近年来,发展中国家纷纷将贸易自由化作为促进经济增长和发展的手段。加纳将进口替代工业化作为促进经济增长的一种方式,但在政策实施几年后,经济出现了大规模衰退。因此,采用了布里顿森林机构来帮助稳定经济。此外,加纳于1986年实施了世界银行和国际货币基金组织的结构调整计划(SAP),其中贸易自由化是改革之一。自由化政策的主要目的是向世界其他地区开放经济,以增加竞争,进而提高国内工业的效率,促进经济增长。因此,本研究的重点是确定1986 - 2017年贸易开放对加纳经济增长的影响。利用年度序列数据,采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型作为估计技术。研究发现,在长期和短期内,贸易开放对经济增长都有负面影响。研究发现,广义货币、通货膨胀和人口增长在短期和长期都对经济增长产生负面影响。固定资本形成总额在短期内对经济增长有积极影响。根据研究结果,该研究建议政策制定者和其他利益相关者应采取措施,尽量减少商品进口,扩大二次商品出口。这些措施如果执行得当,可能会确保贸易开放对加纳经济增长产生积极影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth of Ghana (1986 – 2017)
Trade openness is considered a medium for economic growth. Economic theory supports the assertion that trade enhances competition, promotes large market, transfers of technology which then propels economic growth. In recent times, developing countries have embraced trade liberalization as a means to boost economic growth and development. Ghana implemented import substitution industrialization as a way to promote economic growth, but after few years of policy implementation, the economy experienced a massive recession. Consequently, the Britton Woods Institutions was adopted to help stabilise the economy. Further, Ghana implemented the World Bank and IMF Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 which had trade liberalisation as one of the reforms. The main purpose of the liberalisation policy was to open up the economy to the rest of the world to increase competition and in turn improve efficiency in domestic industries to facilitate economic growth. This study, therefore, focused on ascertaining the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of Ghana from 1986 – 2017. Using annual series data, the study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as the estimation technique. The study found that trade openness had a negative impact on economic growth both in the long- and short run. Broad money, inflation and population growth were found to exert a negative impact on economic growth in both the short and long run. Gross fixed capital formation had a positive impact on economic growth in the short run. Based on the findings, the study recommended that policymakers and other stakeholders should institute measures to minimize the importation of goods and expand the exportation of secondary goods. These measures if properly executed are likely to ensure a positive impact of trade openness on the economic growth of Ghana.
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