Predicting software black-box defects using stacked generalization

Defect number prediction is essential to make a key decision on when to stop testing. For more applicable and accurate prediction, we propose an ensemble prediction model based on stacked generalization (PMoSG), and use it to predict the number of defects detected by third-party black-box testing. Taking the characteristics of black-box defects and causal relationships among factors which influence defect detection into account, Bayesian net and other numeric prediction models are employed in our ensemble models. Experimental results show that our PMoSG model achieves a significant improvement in accuracy of defect numeric prediction than any individual model, and achieves best prediction accuracy when using LWL(Locally Weighted Learning) method as level-1 model.