An Innovative Machine Learning Method for Predicting Well Performance in Unconventional Reservoirs with a Relatively Small Data Set

The machine learning method, now widely used for predicting well performance from unconventional reservoirs in the industry, generally needs large data sets for model development and training. The large data sets, however, are not always available, especially for newly developed unconventional plays. The objective of this work is to develop an innovative machine learning method for predicting well performance in unconventional reservoirs with a relatively small data set. For a small training data set, the corresponding machine learning model can significantly suffer from so-called overfitting meaning that the model can match the training data but has poor predictivity. To overcome this, our new method averages predictions from multiple models that are developed with the same model input, but different initial guesses of model parameters that are unknowns in a machine learning algorithm and determined in the model training. The averaged results are used for the final model prediction. Unlike traditional ensemble learning methods, each prediction in the new method uses all the input data rather than its subset. We mathematically prove that the averaged prediction provides less model uncertainty and under certain conditions the optimum prediction. It is also demonstrated that the method practically minimizes the overfitting and gives relatively unique prediction. The usefulness of the method is further confirmed by its successful application to the data set collected from less than 100 wells in an unconventional reservoir. Sensitivity results with the trained machine learning model show that the model results are consistent with the domain knowledge regarding the production from the reservoir.