The Influence of Supply-Side Reform on the Economic Development of Heilongjiang Province—A Residual Auto-Regressive Model Based on Time Series Analysis

In 2015, China's economy entered a new normal. Under the circumstances that stimulating demand was difficult to achieve results and the contradiction between supply and demand appeared intensified, the government turned to reform from the supply side. To explore whether the supply-side reform has reversed the downward trend of economy, alleviated the structural contradiction and reduced the risk of economic imbalance in Heilongjiang Province, this study collected the GDP growth rate of Heilongjiang Province from 1987 to 2015 from National Bureau of Statistics, and optimized the residual autoregressive model to implement the supply-side reform. We also predicted the GDP growth rate two years after the implementation of the police and compared it with the actual situation. The model indicates that 2015 is the turning point of economic development in Heilongjiang Province, with a small economic growth, which is contrary to the law of economic operation of Heilongjiang Province in the past 29 years. The results support that supply-side reform has solved the system problems and eliminated market obstacles in the transformation of three major industries in Heilongjiang Province from the macro level, and achieved some positive policy effects. Keywords—Supply-Side Reform; Economic Growth; Residual Auto-Regressive Model