Iraq, 2003–2018

This chapter takes Iraq as a case study with which to demonstrate many of the themes of the book and the layered and contextual nature of sectarian dynamics. The multidimensional model introduced in chapters 3-4 is used to explain not just the drivers of sectarian entrenchment but also of its retreat: the de-escalation of sectarian conflict, how sectarian identities lose relevance and how banal coexistence is recaptured. The chapter begins by outlining the pre-2003 roots of post-2003 sectarianization. The political changes of 2003 are then explored as is the evolution of the politics of sect between 2003 and 2018. Charting these transformations reveals the constantly evolving meaning, utility, social salience and political relevance of sectarian identity over the course of 15 years. What emerges is a gradually altered enabling environment with a changing set of incentive structures that have diminished the political salience of sectarian identity both in Iraq and regionally. This is evidenced in the normalization of the post-2003 order and in the transformations that have marked the evolution of threat perceptions, electoral behaviour, Iraq’s muhasasa system, and the parameters of populist discourse. All of which suggests the possibility that the ‘sectarian wave’ of chapter 6 may have crested.