青岛市旅游地域系统演化驱动因子及其作用强度分析 Analysis on Factors and Their Effects on Driving Evolution of Qingdao Regional Tourism System

本文立足旅游地域系统运行状态，建立了包括自然生态环境、社会经济、区位、旅游本底条件、政府旅游业宏观调控水平等诸多层面因素的系统演化驱动因子指标体系，借助灰色关联分析、协整检验与估计等定量研究方法，分析青岛市旅游地域系统演化的关键驱动因子及其作用强度。结果表明，社会经济基础、旅游区位、旅游本底条件及政府对旅游业宏观调控水平对青岛市旅游地域系统发展起正向作用；旅游开发及旅游经济发展通过增大生态环境负面影响，间接对系统发展起负向作用。旅游经济与生态环境协调发展是旅游地域系统可持续发展的关键。 Based on the status of regional tourism system, this paper established complex index system in-cluding eco-environment, social economy, tourism location, tourism development conditions and the efficiency of government macro-management on tourism, and analyzed the key factors and their effects on driving evolution of Qingdao regional tourism system with Gray Relational Analysis and Co Integration Analysis. The data show that social economy, tourism location, tourism development conditions and the efficiency of government macro-management on tourism play a positive role in Qingdao regional tourism system development, while the negative effect of eco- environment caused by tourism development and tourism economy plays a negative role in the system development indirectly. Coordinative development of tourism economy and ecological environment is the key to sustainable development of regional tourism system.