Prediction of landscape dynamic changes in Shangri-la County based on Markov process model

We were studied the changes of landscape patterns in Shangri-la County by using GIS, RS, GPS techniques and TM images of 1990 and 2006, and established the Shangri-la County landscape classification system, and forecasted dynamic changes of the future landscape in the area. The result indicates landscape in the Shangri-la County was primarily temperature coniferous forest and shrub and meadows, with other landscape patches embedded. In 1990-2006, the most transfers among landscape types were between temperature coniferous forest, shrub and meadows and hard leaves broad-leaved forest, the largest rise were town land and farmland. In the support of GIS Markov model forecast indicates human interference to the regional influence will further strengthen in the next 16 years, urban land and farmland area will continue to increase, semi-humid evergreen broad-leaved forest area will decrease constantly, whole landscape tend to be fragmentation, the ecological environment will be received serious influence by human activities in the study area.