对未来和全球领导力的看法:想法和概念

A. Abasov
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摘要

本文对亨廷顿、福山和沃勒斯坦的概念进行了比较分析,以确定未来的理论和方法基础。一、沃勒斯坦的后非古典思想预示了自由主义的危机和西方民主基础转型的必要性,资本主义发展范式的崩溃,民粹主义与威权主义的日益相互联系,形成了一个以系统性失序(混乱)为特征的新过渡时期,“一切反对一切”原则下的尖锐政治斗争,缺乏和平共处,稳定和法制在现代政治进程中得到了最充分的体现。一般来说,未来表现为一系列不同概率程度的情景,只有其中一些绕过不确定区域才会发生。这种方法极大地改变了高等教育和人文社会科学教学的方法。文章的第二部分讨论了通过前事件定义未来的问题,突出了为未来奠定基础的主要事件和次要事件。人们注意到,即使在大流行病之前,世界上民主的缺陷以及反自由主义和反全球主义情绪的增长就已经显而易见,导致民族孤立,加强仇外心理,助长专制政权的发展及其民粹主义形象。强调当代大多数预测本质上都是危言耸听,它们带有深刻的悲观主义和末日情绪。每个国家都必须独自应对威胁,因为为了建立新秩序,世界必须经历破坏性的过程,这证实了沃勒斯坦的预言。正如你所看到的,我们正在谈论教育哲学及其系统范式的严重减少。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Perspectives of the future and global leadership: ideas and concepts
In the article a comparative analysis of the concepts of S. Huntington, F. Fukuyama and I. Wallerstein is carried out in order to identify the theoretical and methodological foundations of the coming future. I. Wallerstein's post-non-classical ideas foreshadowing the crisis of liberalism and the need to transform the foundations of Western democracy, the collapse of capitalism development paradigms, the growing interconnection of populism and authoritarianism, the formation of a new transitional period characterized by systemic disorder (chaos), acute political struggle on the principle “all against all”, lack of peaceful coexistence, stability and legality are most adequately reflected in the modern political process. In general, the future appears as a bundle of scenarios of varying degrees of probability, only some of which, bypassing the zones of uncertainty, can take place. This approach significantly changes the approach to higher education and the teaching of the humanities and social sciences. The second part of the article discusses the issues of defining the future by preceding events, highlighting the main and peripheral events that lay the foundation for the future. It is noted that even before the pandemic, the flaws of democracy and the growth of anti-liberal and anti-globalist sentiments in the world became noticeable, leading to national insularity, strengthening xenophobia, contributing to the growth of authoritarian regimes and their image in populist terms. It is emphasized that the majority of contemporary forecasts are alarmist in nature, they are value colored by deep pessimism and apocalyptic sentiments. Each country will have to cope with threats on its own, because the world must go through destructive processes in order to establish a new order, confirming Wallerstein's predictions. As you can see, we are talking about a serious reduction in the philosophy of education and its systemic paradigms.
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