Learning About College Major Match: Microfoundations From Dynamic Course-Taking

Using administrative transcript data from a four-year institution, this paper finds that major choice is largely driven by the path dependency from majors’ course requirements, rather than ability sorting as previous works have suggested. This contribution peeks behind the veil cast by previous works using major declarations which confounds ability sorting and path dependency. I separate these mechanisms using a structural course-taking model, featuring how courses inform major match quality and satisfy majors’ course requirements. Counterfactuals show that firstyear courses primarily influence major choice through completed course requirements rather than learned major match qualities, particularly in the Natural Sciences.