联合循环燃气轮机电厂可靠性分析的多状态马尔可夫模型

A. Lisnianski, D. Laredo, Hanoch Ben-Haim
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引用次数: 12

摘要

本文对某联合循环燃气轮机(CCGT)电厂进行了可靠性分析。介绍了燃烧轮机和蒸汽轮机耦合到一个适当的发电机的双轴CCGT的多状态马尔可夫模型。该模型适用于基本负荷机组和间歇运行机组。利用该模型可以方便地计算出强制停运率、等效强制停运率等可靠性特性。对可靠性数据的不确定性进行了敏感性分析。为了说明该模型在实际联合循环电厂中的应用,给出了数值算例。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Multi-state Markov Model for Reliability Analysis of a Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plant
This paper presents a reliability analysis of a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant. A Multi-state Markov model is introduced for a two-shaft CCGT where combustion turbine and steam turbine are coupled to a proper generator. The model is a suitable representation for both base load unit and intermittent operating unit. By using the model, such reliability characteristics as Forced Outage Rate, Equivalent Forced Outage Rate, etc. can be easily calculated. Sensitivity analysis for reliability data uncertainty is also provided. The numerical example based on real world combined-cycle power plant is presented in order to illustrate the model application.
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