A Theory of Secessionist Strategy and Tactical Variation

This chapter advances the theory of secessionist strategy and tactical variation, arguing that the strategy and tactics of secession are shaped by the international recognition regime and further contextualized by the setting in which any given secessionist movement operates. The chapter explains how secessionist movements need to compel and persuade their home state to give consent and/or bring the international community into the contest. The chapter uses information drawn from interviews to show that secessionists are well informed about the dynamics of secession. By explaining the logics of compellence and normative appeal, the chapter explicates the different tactics within these two logics. It asserts that the choice of tactics depends on local conditions that cluster around six kinds of movements (democratized, indigenous legal, weak combative, strong combative, decolonial, and de facto). Ultimately, the chapter discusses a prominent hybrid case, Iraqi Kurdistan, and examines the counter-strategy of states.