生态和气候中相互作用的引爆要素系统中多米诺骨牌效应的动态出现

A. Klose, Volker Karle, R. Winkelmann, J. Donges
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引用次数: 7

摘要

在生态学、气候和其他领域,已经确定了当驱动过程中的一个关键阈值或临界点被跨越时,系统可以过渡到一个质的不同状态。鉴于人类对地球生物物理系统的影响越来越大,对这些引爆因素的了解是非常有意义的。引爆要素不是相互独立的,因为存在复杂的相互作用,例如通过连接气候系统子系统的物理机制。基于对这类耦合非线性系统的早期研究,我们系统地评估了相互作用的引爆元素的定性渐近行为。我们发展了对小费行为的相互作用的后果的理解,允许多米诺骨牌效应和小费级联在某些条件下出现。将这些定性结果应用于相互作用的引爆要素的实际例子表明,具有深远后果的多米诺骨牌效应可能发生:相互作用的格陵兰冰盖和热盐海洋环流可能在孤立子系统的引爆点被越过之前引爆。湖泊链中第一个湖泊的富营养化可能在不跨越个别临界营养输入水平的情况下通过后续湖泊传播。出现多米诺骨牌效应的可能性要求发展相互作用的引爆要素的统一理论和相互作用的现实世界引爆要素的定量分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Dynamic emergence of domino effects in systems of interacting tipping elements in ecology and climate
In ecology, climate and other fields, systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Tipping elements are not independent from each other as there exist complex interactions, e.g. through physical mechanisms that connect subsystems of the climate system. Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative asymptotic behavior of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behavior allowing for domino effects and tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. The application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements shows that domino effects with profound consequences can occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels. The possibility of emerging domino effects calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements.
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