An analytical method for wind energy potential, reliability, and cost assessment for wind generation systems

In this paper, a new analytical method and a corresponding two-step procedure are proposed for a wind power generation system design. This comprehensive new method can achieve the wind energy potential evaluation, reliability and costs assessment. In Step 1, the wind energy potential is investigated through the Weibull two-parameter model using the hourly wind speed data of a site. The graphic method is used to extract the Weibull shape and scale parameters. The wind power density can then be determined for the site. In Step 2, an analytical method based on the fault tree analysis (FTA) and minimal cut sets is developed in order to determine the system reliability. The components' failure rates of a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) wind turbine are used to calculate reliability. A generic annual operation and maintenance (O&M) costs calculation formula is proposed in this paper based on field data presented by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A case study is conducted for a wind power project in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The proposed method is critical for planners and financial investigators to make an adequate decision for a wind power project.