Eskisehir地区几种人工神经网络方法的短期风速预测

M. A. Duran, Ümmühan Başaran Filik
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引用次数: 15

摘要

由于使用化石能源对环境的负面影响和化石燃料的枯竭,世界各地都在寻找替代能源。由于风能清洁、可再生,风能在发电中的渗透率日益提高。风力发电厂需要持续和适当强度的风。在电力系统的可靠性和电能质量方面,风能的可变性导致了一些问题。为尽量减少这些问题,应采用高精度的风速预测方法。在本研究中,准确的短期风速预测方法旨在提高风能生产效率。短期风速预测方法是用土耳其Eskisehir地区三年实际每小时平均风速值进行训练/测试的。采用前馈反向传播网络和Levenberg-Marquardt算法进行分析,并对识别出的四种网络模型进行均方误差值的比较。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Short-term wind speed prediction using several artificial neural network approaches in Eskisehir
Due to the negative environmental impact of using fossil energy sources and depletion of fossil fuels, the alternative energy sources are being searched all over the world. Since wind energy is clean and renewable, the penetration of wind energy for electricity generation is increasing day by day. Wind power plants require continuous and appropriate intensity winds. In terms of the reliability and power quality of the power system, the variability of wind energy has led to problems. To minimize these problems, highly accurate wind speed prediction method should be used. In this study, accurate short term wind speed prediction approach is aimed for increasing efficiency of wind energy production. The short term wind speed prediction approached is trained/tested with real three years hourly averaged wind speed values from Eskisehir region of Turkey. Feed forward backpropagation network and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithms are used for analyzing and the identified four network model are compared in terms of mean square error values.
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