保险公司破产威胁:以约旦金融环境为例

Hussein Mohammad Salameh
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引用次数: 2

摘要

众所周知,保险公司具有影响各国金融环境的独特金融失败特征。因此,本研究的目的是评估模型用于预测保险公司财务失败的有效性。该模型被认为有助于稳定各国的金融环境,因为它可以预测保险业的崩溃。运用判别回归技术对从11个财务失败模型参数中选取的28个指标进行检验。模型的11个参数为:偿付能力、盈利能力、经营能力、结构稳健性、资本扩张能力、资本充足率、再保险和精算问题、管理稳健性、资本扩张能力、盈余和盈利能力、流动性。研究结果证明,11个参数中有22个变量显著;研究还验证了财务失败模型作为ASE保险公司财务失败的稳定预测因子的使用。保险业的稳定性是通过实际业绩与测量业绩之间的最小偏差来解释的。在95次观察中有3次出现了偏差,它只影响了19家公司中的3家,3家公司中有1家受到风险偏差的影响这是II型误差扭曲的观察。综上所述,研究表明保险公司不会受到破产或困境的威胁,财务破产模型是一个有效的预测模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Failure Threats of Insurance Companies: A Case Study of Financial Environments of Jordan
Insurance firms are known to have unique financial failure characteristics that affect the financial environment of the countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to assess the validity of the model used in predicting the financial failures of insurance companies. The model is believed to help in stabilizing the financial environment of the countries by predicting any collapses in the insurance sector. A discriminate regression technique was used to test 28 indicators chosen from 11 financial failure model parameters. 11 parameters of the model are the following: solvency, profitability, operational capabilities, structural soundness, capital expansion capacity, capital adequacy, reinsurance and actuarial issues, management soundness, capital expansion capacity, earnings and profitability, and liquidity. The results of the study proved that 22 variables from 11 parameters were significant; the study also validated the use of the financial failure model as a stable predictor of the financial failure of ASE insurance firms. The stability of the insurance industry is interpreted through the minimum deviation between the real and measured performances. The deviation was present in 3 out of 95 observations, and it affected only 3 firms out of 19, 1 firm out of 3 turned out to be affected by the risker deviation which is the type II error distorted observation. To conclude, the study by mentioning that insurance firms are not threatened by failure or distress and the financial failure model is a valid prediction model.
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