中东、北非和巴基斯坦的复苏:宏观经济政策是否有效?

Dalia S. Hakura, F. Grigoli
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文确定并记录了1980年至2008年期间中东、北非和巴基斯坦(MENAP)产出缺口衰退和复苏的特征。文章接着探讨了经济复苏的关键决定因素。从上世纪90年代到本世纪头十年,中东和北非地区国家衰退和复苏的持续时间有所延长。中东和北非地区碳氢化合物出口国的衰退在2000年代平均更为明显,而碳氢化合物进口国的衰退则较为温和。研究发现,财政政策在恢复潜在产出的过程中发挥了关键作用,尽管对贸易更开放的中东和北非地区国家的影响较弱。人们发现货币政策没有那么有效。这可能与许多中东和北非地区国家实行固定汇率制度有关,因此采取积极货币政策的空间有限。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan: Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Effective?
This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries’ recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries’ recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries’ recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy.
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