2018年房地产上市公司股权估值:来自印尼证券交易所的证据

R. Hendrawan, Palti M.T. Sitorus, Ernest L.P. Siagian
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引用次数: 1

摘要

投资形式的股票估值分析需要根据基本数据估计股票的内在价值或合理价格。本研究的目的是评估在IDX 2018上市的房地产和房地产公司股票价格的内在价值。本文采用企业自由现金流法(FCFF)的贴现现金流法(DCF)进行综合估值,并采用市盈率法(PER)和市净率法(PBV)的相对估值法对结果进行验证。以2013 - 2017年企业历史数据为基础,对2018-2022年进行预测,将方法应用于悲观、温和和乐观三种情景。通过比较2018年1月1日市场股票公允价值的结果,DCF-FCFF方法得出CTRA在所有情景下都被低估,而LPKR和BSDE在所有情景下都被高估的结论。PER和PBV分析发现,所有被评估的股票都在行业范围内。说明估值结果是正确的。因此,综上所述,本研究建议卖出LPKR和BSDE股票,买入CTRA股票。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Equity Valuation on Property and Real Estate Listed Companies in 2018: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange
: Investment in the form of shares of stock valuation analysis is required to estimate the intrinsic value or a reasonable price of the stocks based on fundamental data. The objective of this study was to valuate the intrinsic value of stock price at Property and Real Estate Companies listed on IDX 2018. The valuation was carried out comprehensively by using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method of Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) approach, and to validate the results this study used the Relative Valuation method with Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV) approaches. The methods were applied in three scenarios of pessimistic, moderate and optimistic with the historical data of the companies from 2013 to 2017 as the basis for the projections of the 2018-2022 period. By comparing the results of the fair value of the stocks in the market on January 1, 2018, the DCF-FCFF method concluded that CTRA was undervalued in all scenario, while LPKR and BSDE were overvalued in all scenario. The PER and PBV analysis found that all evaluated stocks within the industry ranged. It means that the valuation results are correct. Therefore, in conclusion, this study recommends to sell LPKR and BSDE shares and buy CTRA shares.
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