A Non-Linear Currency Substitution Model of Hysteresis in Debt and Competitiveness

The model has four assets: domestic and foreign money and bonds. It is a two country macro model, with debt defined in terms of the net asset holdings of the domestic country. Asset flows between the domestic and foreign country are driven by the interaction between the current and capital account. Both the assets and goods markets are non-linear: the non-linearities in international debt create the possibility of multiple debt and competitiveness equilibria. The paper shows that domestic and foreign monetary policy, as well as trade shocks, can not only lead to irreversibility of international debt, but also of international competitiveness. This allows us to shed some light on the causes leading to 'debt traps' faced by newly industrialised and less developed countries, the so called 'Dutch disease' in countries with new resource discoveries, and the persistent effects on trade and competitiveness with capital controls and project linked lending.