创新周期理论为马佐维亚应对新冠肺炎引发的经济衰退提供指导

Michael Klepka
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摘要

COVID-19大流行引发的经济衰退无疑是发达经济体和驱动型经济体在区域和全球范围内的沉重负担。谁也没有想到,在这样出乎意料的情况下,一场全球性的危机会从遥远的中国爆发出来。从经济角度来看,这一事实引发了一系列事件,这些事件的影响范围和程度越来越大,并迫使经济经营者顺利运作。但这种情况对经济来说并不陌生——众所周知,随着时间的推移,商业周期具有确定的规律性。按照这一思路,本文指出了所谓的康德拉季耶夫波动,其特征与当前的经济形势有共同的因素。因此,就像在每一次浪潮中一样,由于某种原因造成的衰退阶段,经历了萧条阶段,进入了重建阶段,然后经济得到了重大的发展动力。这一时期的特点是大量的创新,主要是激进的和根本性的,但随着时间的推移,对经济危机的观察影响了这些创新的性质。从持续大流行时期的角度来看,这可能是经济循环中的冲动。我们可以预期,如果经济潜力的积累和市场创新的出现,经济将从衰退和萧条走向复苏。由于创新的专业化和对创新服务的支持,马佐维亚在当时可能具有有利的条件和更好的地位。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The theory of innovation cycles as a guideline for Mazovia in the fight against recession caused by COVID-19
The recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic is undoubtedly a heavy burden on the developed and driven economy, both in the regional and global context. No one thought that under such unexpected circumstances a global crisis would arise from a place in distant China. From an economic point of view, this fact has stimulated a series of events that have increasingly affected in a larger scope, extent and force the smooth functioning of economic operators. But this situation is not unfamiliar to the economy – it is known that there are business cycles with a confirmed regularity over time. Following this path, the article points out the so-called Kondratiev Waves, which characteristics have elements in common with the current economic situation. Consequently, as in every wave, the phase of recession, caused by some kind of reason, goes through depression to the phase of reconstruction – then the economy gets a significant developmental impulse. The specificity of this time is a large number of innovations, mainly radical and fundamental, but the observations of the economic crises extended over time affect the nature of these innovations. From the perspective of the lasting pandemic period, that is perhaps impulse in circularity of the economy. We can expect that shipment from recession and depression to recovery should the accumulation of economic potential and the appearance of innovations on the market occur. Mazovia, thanks to innovation specialisations and support for innovative services, may have favourable conditions and a better position at that time.
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