失业、失业和犯罪:来自丹麦微观数据和改革的证据

P. Bennett, Amine Ouazad
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引用次数: 30

摘要

本文估计了一个工人失业对他/她的犯罪活动的个人影响。利用丹麦所有居民的失业、犯罪和税收方面的匹配雇主-雇员纵向数据集,本文构建了每个工人的离职、失业和犯罪时间轴。本文的重点是失业工人:在1990年至1994年(含1994年)的任何时间点,在大规模裁员事件中失去工作的高任期工人。控制城市和特定时间的混杂因素,将失业率对犯罪的总体影响与个人影响分开识别。安慰剂测试显示,在员工离职之前,没有证据表明犯罪有上升趋势。我们利用丹麦在1993年底引入的《积极劳动力市场法》,估计了激活和减少福利持续时间对犯罪的影响:在积极福利期间,犯罪率低于被动福利期间,在福利资格结束时犯罪率飙升。我们在先前收入与失业救济金相关的扭结公式中使用政策诱导的变化来估计劳动收入和失业救济金对犯罪的单独影响:结果表明,失业救济金并不能显著抵消劳动收入损失对犯罪的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Job Displacement, Unemployment, and Crime: Evidence from Danish Microdata and Reforms
This paper estimates the individual impact of a worker’s job loss on his/her criminal activity. Using a matched employer–employee longitudinal data set on unemployment, crime, and taxes for all residents in Denmark, the paper builds each worker’s timeline of job separation, unemployment, and crime. The paper focuses on displaced workers: high-tenure workers who lose employment during a mass-layoff event at any point between 1990 and 1994 (inclusive). Controlling for municipality- and time-specific confounders identifies the individual impact separately from the aggregate impact of the unemployment rate on crime. Placebo tests display no evidence of trends in crime prior to worker separation. Using Denmark’s introduction of the Act on an Active Labor Market at the end of 1993, we estimate the impacts of activation and of a reduction in benefit duration on crime: crime is lower during active benefits than during passive benefits and spikes at the end of benefit eligibility. We use policy-induced shifts in the kink formula relating prior earnings to unemployment benefits to estimate the separate impacts of labor income and unemployment benefits on crime: the results suggest that unemployment benefits do not significantly offset the impact of labor income losses on crime.
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