在凯恩斯于1921年发表了他的《概率论》100年后,埃奇沃斯的两篇评论仍然比其他任何哲学家对逻辑概率论的评价都要出色得多

M. E. Brady
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引用次数: 0

摘要

埃奇沃斯在《概率论》一书中对凯恩斯的逻辑概率论做出了1921年至2020年100年间哲学家中唯一正确的评价。原因是他实际上读了整本书,除了第二部分,他可以通过非常仔细地阅读第一部分来评估第二部分。任何哲学家,如果想要考虑凯恩斯的《概论》的各个不同方面,面临的主要问题是一个不幸的事实,除了埃奇沃斯(伯特兰·罗素没有读第五部分),他已经读过了《概率论》第1-4章和第6章的部分内容。这一评估包括与SIPTA相关的每一位哲学家,以及B. Koopman, I. J. Good, T. L. Fine, P. Suppes, H.E. Kyburg, I. levi, S. Zabell,以及年轻的哲学家,如B. Weatherson, D. Rowbottom, R.Bradley, S. Bradley, J. Williamson, T. Siedenfeld, G. Wheeler等。得出的结论是,100年后,对于那些想知道凯恩斯在《概率论》中真正完成了什么的哲学家来说,目前只有一条可靠的途径——反复阅读埃奇沃斯的两篇评论。这样,读者就能很好地理解凯恩斯在1921年建立的是什么——历史上第一个在数学和技术上先进的区间值概率方法。Kyburg声称他是第一个为概率逻辑理论提出详细的区间值方法的人,这只是Kyburg的一个重大疏忽。埃德温·b·威尔逊(Edwin B. Wilson)的结论是,埃奇沃斯是迄今为止最有资格评论凯恩斯《概率论》(A Treatise on Probability)的学者。在他发表了对凯恩斯著作的评论100年后,这一结论仍然成立。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
One Hundred Years After Keynes Published His 'A Treatise on Probability' in 1921, Edgeworth’s Two Reviews Still Stand Out As Being Vastly Superior to the Assessments Made by Any Other Philosopher of the Logical Theory of Probability
F. Y. Edgeworth made the only correct assessment of Keynes’s Logical Theory of Probability in his A Treatise on Probability among philosophers in the 100 years between 1921 and 2020. The reason is that he actually read the entire book, with the exception of Part II, which he was able to assess through his very careful reading of Part I. The major problem confronting any philosopher, who wants to take into consideration the various different aspects of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability, is the unfortunate fact that there is no philosopher,with the one exception of Edgeworth (Bertrand Russell did not read Part V), who has read beyond chapters 1-4 plus some parts of chapter 6 of the A Treatise on Probability. This assessment includes every philosopher associated with SIPTA, as well as B. Koopman, I. J. Good, T. L. Fine, P. Suppes, H.E. Kyburg, I.Levi, S. Zabell, as well as younger philosophers, such as B. Weatherson, D. Rowbottom, R.Bradley, S. Bradley, J. Williamson, T. Siedenfeld, G. Wheeler, etc. The conclusion reached is that after 100 years there is only one sure path currently available to philosophers who want to know what it was that Keynes actually accomplished in the A Treatise on Probability-read and reread the two reviews made by Edgeworth. A reader is then in a good position to grasp what it was that Keynes had erected in 1921-the first mathematically and technically advanced interval valued approach to probability in history. Kyburg’s claim, that he was the first to have put forth a detailed interval valued approach for a logical theory of probability, is simply a major oversight made by Kyburg. Edwin B. Wilson's conclusion, that Edgeworth was by the far the most qualified academic to review Keynes's A Treatise on Probability, still holds good 100 years after he published his reviews of Keynes's book.
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