仿真辅助风险评估在运载火箭概念设计中的应用

D. Mathias, S. Go, K. Gee, S. Lawrence
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引用次数: 14

摘要

提出了一种基于仿真的风险评估方法,并将其应用于空间探测任务上升阶段的中止分析。该方法利用了运载火箭故障的分组,称为故障箱,它被映射到相应的故障环境。物理模型用于描述爆炸超压风险、产生的碎片场和火球引起的热辐射等失效环境。通过结合每个故障的可能性、故障环境的严重程度作为启动器和故障时间的函数、机组模块的鲁棒性以及由于早期检测而可用的警告时间,对机组人员产生的风险进行动态建模。该方法通过描述风险驱动因素和识别故障检测将显著降低机组人员风险的区域来支持运载火箭设计过程。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Simulation assisted risk assessment applied to launch vehicle conceptual design
A simulation-based risk assessment approach is presented and is applied to the analysis of abort during the ascent phase of a space exploration mission. The approach utilizes groupings of launch vehicle failures, referred to as failure bins, which are mapped to corresponding failure environments. Physical models are used to characterize the failure environments in terms of the risk due to blast overpressure, resulting debris field, and the thermal radiation due to a fireball. The resulting risk to the crew is dynamically modeled by combining the likelihood of each failure, the severity of the failure environments as a function of initiator and time of the failure, the robustness of the crew module, and the warning time available due to early detection. The approach is shown to support the launch vehicle design process by characterizing the risk drivers and identifying regions where failure detection would significantly reduce the risk to the crew.
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