基于生成对抗网络的股票价格波动预测研究

Lu Wang, Zhensheng Huang
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摘要

为了探索目前最流行的生成对抗网络(Generative Adversarial Network, GAN)在金融预测领域的应用效果,本文提出以标准普尔500指数的每日收盘价为研究对象,探讨GAN对股价波动的预测能力。实证方法以EGARCH模型和长短期记忆(LSTM)作为基准模型,以MSE和MAE作为预测误差度量指标,对三种模型的预测结果进行实证比较,分析GAN提前一天的样本外预测能力。实证结果表明,GAN具有最低的预测误差和最高的预测精度。LSTM也有很好的预测效果,但略逊于GAN。EGARCH模型的预测误差最大。由此可见,GAN作为一种前沿的深度学习技术,在金融时间序列预测领域具有良好的应用前景。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on Stock Price Volatility Prediction Based on Generative Adversarial Network
In order to explore the application effect of the most popular Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) in the field of financial forecasting, this paper proposes to explore the predictive ability of GAN's stock price volatility by taking the daily closing price of the S&P 500 index as the research object. The empirical method takes EGARCH model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) as the benchmark model, MSE and MAE as the prediction error measurement indicators, and empirically compares the prediction results of the three models to analyze the out of sample prediction ability of GAN one day in advance. The empirical results show that GAN has the lowest prediction error and the highest prediction accuracy. LSTM also has a good prediction effect, but it is slightly inferior to GAN. EGARCH model has the largest prediction error. It shows that GAN, as a cutting-edge deep learning technology, has a good application prospect in the field of financial time series prediction.
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