Jet stream variability in a polar warming scenario – a laboratory perspective

Abstract. We report on a set of laboratory experiments to investigate the effect of polar warming on the mid-latitude jet stream. Our results show that a progressive decrease in the meridional temperature difference slows down the eastward propagation of the jet stream and complexifies its structure. Temperature variability decreases in relation to the laboratory “Arctic warming” only at locations representing the Earth's polar and mid-latitudes, which are influenced by the jet stream, whilst such a trend is reversed in the subtropical region south of the simulated jet. The reduced variability results in narrower temperature distributions and hence milder extreme events. However, our experiments also show that the frequency of such events increases at polar and mid-latitudes with decreased meridional temperature difference, whilst it decreases towards the subtropics. Despite missing land–sea contrast in the laboratory model, we find qualitatively similar trends of temperature variability and extreme events in the experimental data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data.