{"title":"“新常态——全球不确定性:软商品2016年不可避免的风险”ppt幻灯片(从印度到世界食用油和油籽的视角)","authors":"Ali Muhammad Lakdawala","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2786889","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\"New Normal, is a period of time in which economies grow very slowly as opposed to growing like weeds, the way children do; in which profits are relatively static; in which the government plays a significant role in terms of deficits and reregulation and control of the economy; in which the consumer stops shopping until he drops and begins, as they do in Japan (to be a little ghoulish), starts saving to the grave.\" - Bill Gross (Co-Founder of PIMCO)Paper will discuss existing on-going Global Economic Scenario from Excess Liquidity to Liquidity Crunch in turn leading to Tectonic shift in Global Growth from Developing Countries to Developed Countries which has resulted and there is no escape from \"new normal\" wherein China’s demand for resources is slowing down. Culminating in Era of VUCA which has period of High Volatility in both Commodity & Currency Markets which are flooded by NOMICS – terminology without any way-out. All of it influences Edible Oil & Oilseeds markets besides its own \"Fundamentals\", case under discussion Indian Market grappling with its own dynamics. In such a scenario how to Leverage upon Market Information to mitigate Price Risk especially in Edible oil & Oilseeds market (it can be applied to across commodity segments) and finally concluding with Price Risk Mitigation Strategies.Last but not the least, paper will conclude by revisiting price forecasts for 2016.","PeriodicalId":191797,"journal":{"name":"FoodSciRN: Oils/Fats in Food Science (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2016-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"PowerPoint Slides of 'The New Normal - Global Uncertainty the Unavoidable Risk in 2016 for Soft Commodities' (Perspective from India to the World on Edible Oil & Oilseeds)\",\"authors\":\"Ali Muhammad Lakdawala\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/SSRN.2786889\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\\"New Normal, is a period of time in which economies grow very slowly as opposed to growing like weeds, the way children do; in which profits are relatively static; in which the government plays a significant role in terms of deficits and reregulation and control of the economy; in which the consumer stops shopping until he drops and begins, as they do in Japan (to be a little ghoulish), starts saving to the grave.\\\" - Bill Gross (Co-Founder of PIMCO)Paper will discuss existing on-going Global Economic Scenario from Excess Liquidity to Liquidity Crunch in turn leading to Tectonic shift in Global Growth from Developing Countries to Developed Countries which has resulted and there is no escape from \\\"new normal\\\" wherein China’s demand for resources is slowing down. Culminating in Era of VUCA which has period of High Volatility in both Commodity & Currency Markets which are flooded by NOMICS – terminology without any way-out. All of it influences Edible Oil & Oilseeds markets besides its own \\\"Fundamentals\\\", case under discussion Indian Market grappling with its own dynamics. In such a scenario how to Leverage upon Market Information to mitigate Price Risk especially in Edible oil & Oilseeds market (it can be applied to across commodity segments) and finally concluding with Price Risk Mitigation Strategies.Last but not the least, paper will conclude by revisiting price forecasts for 2016.\",\"PeriodicalId\":191797,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"FoodSciRN: Oils/Fats in Food Science (Topic)\",\"volume\":\"33 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2016-05-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"FoodSciRN: Oils/Fats in Food Science (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2786889\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"FoodSciRN: Oils/Fats in Food Science (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2786889","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
“新常态是指经济增长非常缓慢的一段时间,而不是像杂草一样生长,就像孩子们那样;其中利润相对稳定;其中,政府在赤字和经济调控方面发挥着重要作用;在这种情况下,消费者停止购物,直到他倒下,然后开始像日本人那样(有点残忍),开始存钱到死。”- Bill Gross(太平洋投资管理公司联合创始人)论文将讨论当前的全球经济形势,从流动性过剩到流动性紧缩,进而导致全球经济增长从发展中国家向发达国家转移,这导致了中国对资源的需求正在放缓,“新常态”不可避免。在VUCA时代达到高潮,在商品和货币市场都有一个高波动的时期,充斥着NOMICS -没有任何出路的术语。所有这些都影响着食用油和油籽市场,除了它自己的“基本面”,印度市场正在努力应对自己的动态。在这种情况下,如何利用市场信息来降低价格风险,特别是在食用油和油籽市场(它可以应用于跨商品细分市场),最后以价格风险降低策略结束。最后但并非最不重要的是,本文将以回顾2016年的价格预测来结束。
PowerPoint Slides of 'The New Normal - Global Uncertainty the Unavoidable Risk in 2016 for Soft Commodities' (Perspective from India to the World on Edible Oil & Oilseeds)
"New Normal, is a period of time in which economies grow very slowly as opposed to growing like weeds, the way children do; in which profits are relatively static; in which the government plays a significant role in terms of deficits and reregulation and control of the economy; in which the consumer stops shopping until he drops and begins, as they do in Japan (to be a little ghoulish), starts saving to the grave." - Bill Gross (Co-Founder of PIMCO)Paper will discuss existing on-going Global Economic Scenario from Excess Liquidity to Liquidity Crunch in turn leading to Tectonic shift in Global Growth from Developing Countries to Developed Countries which has resulted and there is no escape from "new normal" wherein China’s demand for resources is slowing down. Culminating in Era of VUCA which has period of High Volatility in both Commodity & Currency Markets which are flooded by NOMICS – terminology without any way-out. All of it influences Edible Oil & Oilseeds markets besides its own "Fundamentals", case under discussion Indian Market grappling with its own dynamics. In such a scenario how to Leverage upon Market Information to mitigate Price Risk especially in Edible oil & Oilseeds market (it can be applied to across commodity segments) and finally concluding with Price Risk Mitigation Strategies.Last but not the least, paper will conclude by revisiting price forecasts for 2016.