Coup or Not Coup: The African Union and the Dilemma of “Popular Uprisings” in Africa

ABSTRACT Since 2011, Africa witnessed 7 different forms of popular uprisings leading to the overthrow of ruling heads of state. This includes the situations in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia in 2011, Burkina Faso in 2014, Zimbabwe in 2017 as well as the recent cases in Algeria and Sudan in 2019. During these uprisings, the African Union (AU) is criticized for its lack of responsiveness to government crackdown, but quick action to condemn the military-supported revolution. Using the case of Sudan, this article examines the complexities of popular uprisings in Africa and AU’s challenge in managing the situation. The paper argues that the AU faces the dilemma of protecting the rights of peaceful protesters in a sovereign state and ensuring long-term stability, including preventing the history of military adventurism on the continent. Yet, its role has often leaned disproportionately toward maintaining stability, which raises criticisms that it favors state regimes as opposed to its human-centric and democratic commitments. To enhance its credibility, the AU must adopt proactive roles to protect protesters against government crackdowns. Additionally, the AU needs to augment its existing African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG) with actionable policy guidance for protesters, governments, and security agencies during popular uprisings.