避免“大过滤器”:外星生命和人类在宇宙中的未来

Jonathan H. Jiang, P. Rosen, Kelly Lu, Kristen Fahy, Piotr Obacz
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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们的宇宙是一个巨大的、诱人的谜——这个谜多年来一直激发着人类与生俱来的好奇心。到目前为止,即使近年来科技取得了巨大的进步,但乞求有关外星生命形式的问题的答案仍是徒劳的。再加上弗兰克·德雷克博士从20世纪60年代初开始的逻辑假设和计算,生命的证据应该在我们的银河系中大量存在,但实际上,我们没有在我们自己的星球之外找到明确的证据。那么,大家都去哪了?地球之外宇宙的寂静揭示了人类的局限性和坚定的好奇心。即使像SETI这样雄心勃勃的计划瞄准了所涉及的技术挑战,到目前为止,结果仍然没有任何生命的迹象。我们假设,随着文明以指数方式向太空探索发展,一场生存灾难可能在等待,就像大过滤器一样:一种在文明相遇之前就消灭了它们的现象,解释了宇宙的沉默。我们提出了“大过滤器”的几种可能情况,包括人为和自然灾害,这两种情况都可以通过个人、机构和内在行为的改革来预防。考虑了多种灾难候选:核战争、病原体和流行病、人工智能、流星撞击和气候变化。大过滤器有可能消灭地球上的生命,尤其是当我们的进步速度与我们堕落的严重程度直接相关时。我们需要一段必要的自省期,然后进行适当的改进,以更有效地应对我们的困境,以减轻对人类和地球上近900万其他物种的风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Avoiding the “Great Filter”: Extraterrestrial Life and Humanity’s Future in the Universe
Our Universe is a vast, tantalizing enigma - a mystery that has aroused humankind’s innate curiosity for ages. Begging answers to questions on alien lifeforms have been thus far unfruitful, even with bounding technological advancements of recent years. Coupled with logical assumptions and calculations such as those made by Dr. Frank Drake starting in the early 1960s, evidence of life should arguably exist in abundance in our galaxy alone, yet in practice we’ve produced no clear affirmation beyond our own planet. So, where is everybody? The silence of the Universe beyond Earth reveals a pattern of both human limitation and steadfast curiosity. Even as ambitious programs such as SETI take aim at the technological challenges involved, the results have thus far turned up empty for any signs of life. We postulate an existential disaster may lay in wait as civilizations advance exponentially towards space exploration, acting as the Great Filter: a phenomenon that wipes out civilizations before they can encounter each other, explaining the cosmic silence. We propose several possible scenarios for the Great Filter, including anthropogenic and natural hazards, both of which can be prevented with reforms in individual, institutional and intrinsic behaviors. Multiple calamity candidates are considered: nuclear warfare, pathogens and pandemics, artificial intelligence, meteor impacts, and climate change. The Great Filter has the potential to eradicate life on Earth, especially as our rate of progress correlates directly to the severity of our fall. A necessary period of introspection, followed by appropriate refinements to more effectively approach our predicament, is required to mitigate risk to humankind and the nearly 9 million other species on Earth.
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