论经济市场周期和移民

O. Butriy
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摘要

在我之前的论文《论经济市场周期和主导市场行为》中,我介绍了大经济市场周期的时间顺序阶段。为了简单地提醒读者,经济市场的发展是一系列大大小小的波动。市场债务是市场波动的根源。债务的积累及其偿还期导致市场波动,换句话说,就是市场周期。在市场周期中,经济首先上升,然后经历衰退。在市场周期中,经济的上升与借贷和经济增长有关,而在市场周期中,经济的下滑是由于积累的债务必须偿还。一个大的经济周期大约持续75-100年。大市场曲线的下行与可能持续十年的经济萧条有关。此外,我认为75-100年是社会上3代人成熟的时间跨度。比方说,一个人从事经济活动30-35年。在《论经济市场周期与主导市场行为》一文中,我提出75-100年的经济市场大周期代表了社会的三代人,即发展者的一代、受益者的一代和衰退者的一代。移民对接收国的社会、经济和社会福利的影响可能从非常好到非常坏。移民的个人经济行为对接收社会的群体经济行为的长期影响最终是决定性的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On Economic Market Cycles and Immigration
In my previous paper “On Economic Market Cycles and Dominating Market Behaviour”, I’ve introduced the chronological phases of a Big Economic Market Cycle. In order to remind the readers briefly, the economic market develops as a series of small and big swings. The market debt is the source of market swings. The accumulation of debt and its period of back payment cause market swings or, in other words, market cycles. During a market cycle the economy first goes up and, then, experiences a downturn. The economic rise during a market cycle is linked to money borrowing and economic growth, while the downturn in a market cycle results from the accumulated debt which has to be paid back.

A Big Economic Cycle lasts for about 75-100 years. The downturn in a Big Market Curve associates with an economic depression which might last for a decade.

Further, I suggested that 75-100 years it’s the time span of 3 mature generations of people in the society. Let’s say, a person stays economically active 30-35 years.

In the article “On Economic Market Cycles and Dominating Market Behaviour”, I suggest that that 75-100 years of a Big Economic Market Cycle represents three generations of society, that is, the generation of developers, the generation of benefiters and the generation of decline.

The immigration might do from very good to very bad for the recipient society, its economic and social well-being. The influence of individual economic behaviour of immigrants on the group economic behaviour of the recipient society in the long term is decisive in the end of the day.
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