Risk Level Analysis for Hazard Area During Commercial Space Launch

Current method used for integrating space launch vehicles into National Airspace System (NAS) and reducing aircraft risks includes closing large air space areas to any air vehicles, known as hazard areas. Airspace regulations cause aircraft to reroute increasing flight distance, delays and overall flight cost. Air space restriction area and time are based on profile risk factors of space vehicle launch. This paper describes a method to dynamically construct a risk level map of commercial space launch operations' impact on nearby aircraft. The hazard area is divided into multiple sections, each section is also dynamically evaluated for a risk level, which is a comprehensive index considering the uncertain debris trajectory model and launch failure probabilities. This method provides a framework for modeling an optimal aircraft routing plan within a required risk level.