Modelling and Simulation of Uncertainty in the Placement of Distributed Energy Resources for Planning Applications

The penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution networks has greatly increased. Although there are widespread benefits, unregulated penetration can lead to several technical problems. Research activity on understanding the technical impacts has increased, motivated by two needs: the evaluation of the adequacy of existing networks to host DERs, which contributes to regulations for penetration, and development of new principles for designing and planning new electrification systems. Appropriate tools for this analysis must be based on probabilistic techniques to address input uncertainties. The application of probabilistic load flow approaches to account for uncertainties related to consumer loads and power generation from renewable energy sources is widely reported. However, uncertainty regarding future DER penetration scenarios, particularly placement, is not adequately addressed. This paper explores the impact on accuracy of different strategies to modelling and simulating uncertain DER placement through the application of three different placement strategies on a practical feeder located in South Africa.