埃及的结构转型,1965-2015

K. Ikram
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引用次数: 0

摘要

1965年至2015年间,埃及经济结构变化缓慢。农业在国内生产总值中所占的份额减半,而工业相应增加,但其中大部分是石油部门增加值的增加。服务业的贡献几乎保持不变。国际收支仍然处于赤字状态,因为汇率和进口保护政策造成了一种反出口的偏见。由于结构性原因,预算赤字持续存在——支出随着国内通货膨胀而增加,而收入则依赖外部来源(例如苏伊士运河运输、石油出口、外国援助的收入),而且增长速度较慢。1965年,商品和服务出口占GDP的比例为17%,2015年为14%;进口占GDP的比例分别为21%和23%;税收占国内生产总值的13%和14%。劳动力市场的一个重要结构性变化是非正规部门就业的大幅增加。结构转变的缓慢很大程度上可归因于一种隐含的政治经济契约,即政权向人口提供大量商品和服务补贴以及低税收,以换取政治上的接受。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Structural Transformation in Egypt, 1965–2015
Between 1965 and 2015, the structure of the Egyptian economy changed slowly. The share of agriculture in GDP halved, while industry increased correspondingly, but most of it represented increased value-added in the petroleum sector. The contribution of services remained almost constant. The balance of payments remained in deficit because exchange rate and import protection policies created an anti-export bias. Budget deficits persisted for structural reasons—expenditures increased in line with domestic inflation, while revenues depended upon exogenous sources (e.g. revenues from Suez Canal traffic, petroleum exports, foreign aid) and increased more slowly. The ratio of exports of goods and services to GDP was 17 per cent in 1965 and 14 in 2015; that of imports to GDP 21 and 23 per cent; of taxes to GDP 13 and 14 per cent. An important structural change in the labour market was a substantial increase in informal sector employment. The slowness of the structural transformations is largely attributable to an implicit political-economy compact whereby regimes provided the population large subsidies on goods and services and low taxation in return for political acceptance.
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