对阿尔巴尼亚宏观经济政策战略相互作用的初步关键评价

Bernard Dosti, Elena Polo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

货币和财政政策构成主要的宏观政策,尽管它们的设计和实施目标通常截然不同,有时甚至是相反的。虽然它们大多在体制基础上具有一定程度的独立性,但它们之间也存在相当程度的相互依存。当一个国家在一个货币联盟内运作时,这个词通常在文献中被称为“互动”,然后是“协调”。本文的第一个目标是简要地确定宏观政策之间相互作用的主要因素。第二个目标是以非同步方式使用每个政策反应函数的历史数据来评估阿尔巴尼亚案例中它们之间的相互作用。与方法相关的是,将对各种经济变量进行描述性比较分析,指出货币和财政政策之间的相互作用方式,并在危机后重新审视其工具和协调。根据这一理论方法,将对相互作用进行评估,其中后者的方法论方法涉及博弈论,一般分析决策情况。这项工作的第一个结果与货币和财政政策的稳定作用有关。其他结果将依赖于一个政策的变化作为另一个政策变化的响应。如果这一数据在统计上得到证实,我们就可以确认两项宏观政策之间存在战略互动。上述所有因素将阐明阿尔巴尼亚的一些初步理论和实证研究结果,有助于在该领域进行进一步的研究辩论和工作。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Initial Key Evaluation of The Strategic Interaction Between Macroeconomic Policies in Albania
Monetary and fiscal policy constitutes principal macro-policies, even though they are usually designed and implemented with quite different sometimes even contrary goals. Although they have a certain degree of independence mostly in the institutional basis, there is also a considerable level of interdependence between them. This one is usually found in the literature with the term “interaction” and then “harmonization” when the country operates within a monetary union. The first objective of this paper is to shortly identify main elements of the interaction between macro-policies. The second objective is to evaluate this mutual interaction among them for the Albanian case with historical data using each policy reaction function in a non-simultaneous way. Related to the methodology, there will be a descriptive comparative analysis of various economic variables indicating ways of interaction between monetary and fiscal policy also with revisiting their instruments and coordination after the crisis. Following this theoretical approach, there will be an evaluation on the mutual interaction, where the methodological approach of the latter relates to game theory generally analyzing decision situations. The first results of this work relate to the stabilizing effects of monetary and fiscal policy. The other results will rely on the changes of one policy as a response of changes in the other. If this one is statistically approved, we can confirm a presence of strategic interaction between the two macro-policies. All above mentioned elements will shed light on some first theoretical and empirical findings for Albania contributing to a further research debate and work in the field.
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