商业周期和经济冲击的规模

ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic) Pub Date : 2009-03-20 DOI:10.2139/SSRN.2581751

M. Coccia

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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文的目的是确定经济冲击(SES)的规模，考虑一个新的指标，该指标基于商业周期内收缩和扩张的持续时间(以月为单位)及其幅度，以基于连锁2000美元的GDP变化百分比衡量。本文采用美国经济周期数据。其结果是，SES显示了随着时间的推移收缩和扩张的实际经济影响，并作为经济系统在短期内进入动荡状态的警告信号。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Business Cycles and the Scale of Economic Shock

The purpose of this paper is to determine the scale of economic shocks (SES), considering a new indicator based on the duration (in months) of contractions and expansions within Business Cycles and their amplitude, measured by GDP percent change based on chained 2000 dollars. Data of US Business cycles are used. The result is that the SES shows the real economic impact of contractions and expansions over time and serves as a warning signal that the economic system is entering into a turbulent state in the short-run.

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ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)

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