核工程风险管理研究——以T项目逆向供电为例

Baoquan Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在可持续发展和人类命运共同体的愿景下,“零碳”时代正向我们走来。核能长期以来一直被视为实现“碳中和”未来的有力手段之一。核电项目具有技术要求高、建设周期长、系统构成复杂、利益相关者众多、社会责任重的特点。任何联系都是至关重要的。因此,对核电项目进行有效的风险管理具有十分重要的意义。根据核电T项目的实际情况,进行了以下研究:(1)通过对国内外文献的研究,采用德尔菲法匿名投票和专家咨询会议对风险因素进行合并、过滤和补充,确定了核电T项目输电过程中设计、安装调试、施工、合同、外部、采购、行政许可等7大类24个风险因素。(2)采用AHP模糊综合评价法选择供电风险因素的层次结构模型,构建判断矩阵,建立风险评价表,计算各层次的风险权重并进行排序,比较风险评价集的取值区间,得到核电T项目供电风险等级。(3)在展望中,笔者考虑在未来利用领结模型提前防控风险事件,从而制定措施。最后,提出了报告、预警、处置、监测一体化的风险控制平台,形成风险识别、报告、处置、整改的闭环管理。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on Risk Management of Nuclear Engineering - Taking T Project Reverse Power Supply As an Example
Under the vision of sustainable development and a community with a shared future for mankind, the era of “zero carbon” is coming to us. Nuclear energy has long been seen as one of the powerful means to achieve a “carbon neutral” future. Nuclear power projects are characterized by high technical requirements, long construction period, complex system composition, numerous stakeholders and heavy social responsibilities. Any link is crucial. Therefore, effective risk management of nuclear power projects is of great significance. Based on the actual situation of nuclear POWER T project, the following studies are carried out: (1) Through the research of domestic and foreign literature, Delphi method anonymous voting and expert consultation meeting were adopted to merge, filter and supplement the risk factors, and 24 risk factors in seven categories, including design, installation and commissioning, construction, contract, external, procurement and administrative licensing, were identified in the process of power transmission of NUCLEAR POWER T project. (2) AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to select the hierarchical structure model of power supply risk factors, construct a judgment matrix, establish a risk evaluation table, calculate the risk weight of each level and rank it, compare the value interval of risk evaluation set, and get the power supply risk level of NUCLEAR power T project. (3) In the outlook, the author considers the use of bow-tie model to prevent and control risk events in advance in the future, so as to formulate measures. Finally, the integrated risk control platform of reporting, early-warning, disposal and monitoring is proposed to form a closed-loop management of risk identification, reporting, disposal and rectification.
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