Wind Power Output Scene Reconstruction Method Considering Wind Speed Autocorrelation and Source Load Cross-Correlation

A wind power output scene reconstruction method considering wind speed autocorrelation and source load cross-correlation is proposed. Correlation is introduced on the basis of traditional probability model to construct wind power output scene with both correlation and probability and statistical characteristics. Firstly, the time series correlation modeling is carried out based on the correlation coefficient matrix, Cholesky decomposition and Copula theory, and the random wind speed series considering correlation is obtained. Then the wind speed series is converted into wind power output scene series based on the wind speed-wind power conversion model. Finally, the wind power output scene is reconstructed by taking the historical wind speed data of a regional wind farm as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.