阴霾中的一线曙光:检视中国人口老龄化危机、扩张性人口政策及替代解决方案

Tianyi Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国拥有14亿多人口,几个世纪以来一直是世界上人口最多的国家。虽然人口增长在中国悠久的历史中基本上是自然的,但自19世纪末以来,人口政策和控制已成为中国政策制定的一个组成部分。1949年共产党掌权后,人口政策变得更加关键,尽管有时不稳定、任性。在这篇文章中,我将首先表明,中国确实正在酝酿一场重大的人口老龄化危机,这可能标志着一场根本性的蜕变,它将摧毁中国的人口红利。我要进一步指出,这种姗姗来迟的政策转变已经不太可能让中国人口为即将到来的人口老龄化危机做好准备,也不太可能玩这种人口追赶游戏,因为它将在未来十年给劳动年龄人口带来更沉重的负担。最后,我将提出解决迫在眉睫的人口危机的替代方案,不只是提高出生率,而是以更公平的再分配制度和养老金制度改革的形式,减轻工人阶级和老年人的焦虑和负担。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Silver Lining in Looming Storm: Examining China’s Population Aging Crisis, Expansionary Population Policy, and Alternate Solutions
Home to over 1.4 billion residents, China has been the world’s most populous country for centuries. While population growth had been largely natural in China’s long history, population policies and controls had become an integral part of Chinese policymaking since the late 19th century. After the Communist Party overtook the regime in 1949, population policies became even more pivotal, if volatile and willful at times. In this essay, I will first show that there is indeed a significant population aging crisis brewing within China, which could mark a fundamental metamorphosis that decimates China’s population dividend. I will further state that this belated policy turnaround is already highly unlikely to prepare the Chinese population for the looming population aging crisis, nor is it a promising idea to play this population catch-up game, because it will incur an even heavier burden for the working age population in the next decade. And finally, I will propose alternate solutions to the looming population crisis that look beyond simply boosting birth rates, in the form of a fairer redistribution system and pension system reform that alleviates anxieties and burdens of the working class as well as elderly population.
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