巴西房价与房地产泡沫:基于约翰森协整的分析

Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2016-02-09 DOI:10.1504/IJADS.2015.074619

Cássio Roberto Leite Netto, Luiz Paulo Fávero, Janilson Antonio Da Silva Suzart

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文通过约翰森协整提出了房价指数的长期作用模型。与房地产市场相关的变量被用来验证与巴西一家非常重要的机构FipeZap制定的房价指数之间存在长期关系。然后使用该模型来评估圣保罗和里约热内卢市场住宅物业中可能存在的房地产泡沫，结果显示圣保罗没有代表性泡沫，但里约热内卢的价格被高估。在分析期间(2008-2013年)，两个市场的价格都上涨了很多，但显示出向基本面趋同的最新趋势。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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House prices and real estate bubbles in Brazil: an analysis through Johansen cointegration

This article presents a long-term role model of a house price index through Johansen cointegration. Variables linked to the real estate market were used to verify the existence of a long-term relation with the house price index formulated by FipeZap, a very important Brazilian institution. The model was then used to evaluate the possible existence of real estate bubbles in residential properties in the markets of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, showing the absence of a representative bubble in Sao Paulo, but overvalued prices in Rio de Janeiro. Over the analysed period (2008-2013), prices have risen quite a lot in both markets, but show the latest trend of convergence towards the fundamentals.

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Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.

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