市场会奖励宪法改革吗?美国国家债务危机的教训

B. Beach
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引用次数: 0

摘要

美国19世纪40年代的州债务危机提供了一个独特的机会,可以确定采用自我施加的财政约束是否会降低主权借贷成本。在9个州违约后,20个州采用了宪法条款,限制立法机关发行债务的能力。改革的过程产生了改革时机的变化。利用这种差异,我发现只有声誉受损的州(即在危机期间违约的州)在实施这些改革后获得了较低的借贷成本。这表明,制度约束可以帮助主权国家重新确立偿还债务的承诺。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Do Markets Reward Constitutional Reform? Lessons from America’s State Debt Crisis
America's 1840s state debt crisis presents a unique opportunity to identify whether the adoption of self-imposed fiscal constraints lowers sovereign borrowing costs. After nine states defaulted, 20 states adopted constitutional provisions that constrained the legislature’s ability to issue debt. The process of reform generates variation in the timing of these reforms. Exploiting this variation, I find that only states with tarnished reputations (i.e. states that defaulted during the crisis) were rewarded with lower borrowing costs following the adoption of these reforms. This suggests that institutional constraints can help sovereigns reestablish their commitment to debt repayment.
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