A Study of the Method for Estimating Demand in Response to Change in Interregional Rail Intervals Using Game Theory

The travel time experienced by passengers using public transportation consists of in-vehicle time and out-of-vehicle time. The out-of-vehicle time consists of the access time to approach the station, the waiting time at the station, and the transfer time. In public transportation demand analysis, it is a general method to apply 1/2 of the dispatch interval to the waiting time of passengers in general public transportation demand analysis, assuming that the behavior of users approaching the station arrives at random and follows a uniform distribution. However, in a number of studies at domestic and abroad, when a fixed schedule such as an interregional rail is known in advance, users adjust the initial departure time according to service availability. However, there was a limit in analyzing the demand change due to the increase in the supply of interregional rail services without network changes such as increased trains and double-track. Therefore, this study analyzed the effect of the reduction in waiting time according to the increase in the number of high-speed trains on demand forecasting through Stackelberg game theory in order to analyze the effect of the decrease in the waiting time of users on the increase in demand.