Deviyantini Deviyantini, Iman Sugema, Tony Irawan
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本研究旨在确定货币需求函数(M1和M2)由于经济冲击而发生的结构性变化而不稳定的来源。这些冲击在技术上表现为数据中存在结构性断裂,并可能导致参数不恒定。运用Gregory和Hansen检验分析了货币需求函数的不稳定性。利用时变参数模型确定了货币需求的不稳定性来源。本研究使用了1993年第一季度至2013年第四季度的季度时间序列数据。结果表明,货币需求函数(M1和M2)不是协整的(不稳定),不稳定的来源是汇率变量。关键词:稳定货币需求,结构性断裂,时变参数模型
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
STRUCTURAL BREAKS DAN KETIDAKSTABILAN PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA
This research aims to identify the sources of instability of the money demand function (M1 and M2) due to structural changes that occur as a result of economic shocks. These shocks are technically shown by the presence of structural breaks in the data and can lead the parameters non-constancy. The instability of the money demand function was analyzed using the Gregory and Hansen test. The source of instability of the money demand was identified using time varying parameter model. This research used quarterly time series data from 1993Q1 to 2013Q4. The results show that the money demand function (M1 dan M2) is not cointegrated (unstable) and the source of the instability is exchange rate variable. Keywords: Stability money demand, Structural breaks, Time varying parameter model
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