集中预测分析和诊断价值创造

Aysha Mubarak AlSulaimani, Pradip Majumdar, Reem Alhammadi, Badhria AlHammadi
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引用次数: 1

摘要

对现场旋转设备实施的维护策略是常规的基于时间的维护(6个月-1年)。由于这种维护理念,许多设备每6-12个月进行一次维修,包括备用设备。因此,材料、备件和工时的消耗非常频繁。2019年,公司决定将维修理念从以时间为基础转变为以运行小时为基础,根据oem的建议,4000运行小时是设备维修前的最佳运行小时。通过实施该技术,减少了设备维修的频率,从而降低了维修成本和服务成本。随着人工智能技术和数字化世界的发展,对预测性维护分析和工具的部署提出了新的要求。集中式预测分析和诊断(CPAD)是关键资产的集中式实时预测监控解决方案。来自站点历史记录的特定于资产的实时数据将被复制到集中的历史记录中,以实现对这些资产的持续监控和故障预测。CPAD模块获取这些数据流,并根据第一性原理模型对每个资产执行性能计算,还通过使用APR方法的数据驱动模型监测故障预测。CPAD将生成故障通知,并将其发送给现场专家进行后续处理。CPAD项目将分多个阶段实施。第一阶段将作为概念验证的试点实施,将包括部署、调试和监控所有核心应用程序。一旦概念实施的试点证明得到讨论,接下来将进一步实施剩余的关键旋转设备。预测性维护和分析诊断解决方案的部署将以不同的形式增加价值。它将支持关键设备的停机延迟和计划,它将有助于降低材料,消耗品,备件和工时的维护成本。此外,它将有助于从预防性维护过渡到主动/预测性维护。此外,预测能力将有助于早期预测和识别潜在的故障,并在实际故障发生之前提供咨询建议,以支持故障的纠正。试点于2020年开始实施,部署了54台关键旋转设备。第一阶段试点实施报告的案例报告节省了约300万美元,并证明了CPAD的概念。制定了一项计划,以便在CPAD系统中获取额外的资产。在该项目的第三阶段实施中又部署了108台设备。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Centralized Predictive Analytics & Diagnostics Value Creation
The implemented maintenance strategy for rotating equipment in the field was conventional time-based (6months-1year) maintenance. Due to this maintenance philosophy, many equipment's were serviced every 6-12 months including the stand-by equipment. Thus, material, spare parts and man-hours are consumed very frequently. In 2019, company decided to convert the maintenance philosophy from time-based to running-hours based and based on OEMs recommendations, 4000 running-hours was the optimum running-hours before the equipment maintenance. By implementing this technique, the frequency of equipment maintenance was reduced and thus maintenance cost and service cost were reduced as well. Moving towards the deployment of AI technology and digitalization world, a new requirement to deploy predictive maintenance analytics and tools elevated. The Centralized Predictive Analytics & Diagnostic (CPAD) which is a centralized ret time predictive monitoring solution for critical assets. The asset specific real time data from site historian will be replicated a centralized historian to enable continuous monitoring of these assets and failure predictions. The CPAD modules get these data streams and execute performance calculations for each asset based on first principle models and also monitor for the failure predictions through data driven models using APR methods. CPAD will generate fault notifications that will be transmitted to site experts for follow-up. CPAD project will be implemented in multiple phases. The first phase will be a pilot implementation as prove of concept and will include the deployment, commissioning and monitoring of all core applications. Once pilot prove of concept implementation schussed, it will to be followed by further implementation of remaining critical rotating equipment. The deployment of predictive maintenance and analytic diagnostics solutions will add value in different forms. It will support shutdown deferrals and planning for critical equipment, it will help in reducing maintenance cost of material, consumables, spares & man hour. In addition, it will help in the transition from preventive maintenance to proactive/predictive maintenance. Furthermore, the predication ability will help in early prediction and identification of potential failures and gives advisory recommendations to support rectifications of failures before the actual failure occur. The pilot implementation started in 2020 with the deployment of 54 critical rotating equipment. The cases reported in phase-1 pilot implementation reported around $3.000.000 savings and proved the CPAD concept. A plan were put in place to capture additional assets in the CPAD system. Additional 108 equipment were deployed in phase-3 implementation of the project.
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