Short-term operation planning of the Itaipu hydroelectric plant considering uncertainties

This work presents a new computational tool based on Monte Carlo simulation for elaborating the short-term operation planning of Itaipu. The proposed tool will aid planners during the decision-making process about how much energy can be offered to the clients, considering both forebay and afterbay inflow uncertainties. Hydro uncertainties will be modeled using real statistical data related to the forecasting errors. With this new approach the output variables which are currently deterministic will now be represented by probability distributions, allowing planners to evaluate the risks associated with a given operating strategy. The proposed tool will be tested in a case study simulating a flooding scenario. Results are presented and discussed in details.