非洲经济体之间的经济距离和跨国溢出效应:对增长和发展的影响

Ajana Uzodigwe Anthony, Onyebuchi Obi Kenneth, Chukwukelu Egwuatu Romeo, Ikechukwu Unegbu Paul
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摘要

本研究一方面审查尼日利亚与某些选定的非洲国家之间的联系程度,另一方面审查这些经济体中经济增长、通货膨胀和失业之间的联系。该研究涵盖了2000年至2019年的时间。该研究的目的是首先使用Mazurek提出的方法来衡量尼日利亚与这些国家之间的经济距离。其次,利用Diebold和Yilmaz提出的基于var的溢出指数方法,对尼日利亚与这些国家之间的溢出程度进行了表征。研究的主要发现是,所选的非洲经济体在经济上相当分散,跨境溢出的水平可以忽略不计。这表明,一个经济体的增长没有受到该区域其他经济体增长的影响。有鉴于此,该研究报告建议应制订改善非洲内部贸易的政策。这样的政策应该包含一种以物易物的贸易框架,在这个框架中,非洲可以要求它所生产的,并生产它所需要的。从本质上讲,应该更多地关注市场的供给方而不是需求方,因为根据萨伊斯定律,增加产量自然会导致需求成比例地增加。为此,应创造有利的环境,在改进人力和资本基础设施的同时促进技术创新。感兴趣的变量的汇总统计。在使用ADF检验统计量进行平稳性检验后,他使用Pearson相关性来检验指标之间的关联程度。他还使用Pedroni面板协整方法测试了群体协整。此外,无条件相关的结果被用来评估相对和群体经济距离。最后,利用Diebold和Yilmaz(2009年、2012年、2014年)的溢出指数,研究了相关国家之间的连通性水平。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Economic distance and cross-country spillovers among African economies: Implication for growth and Development
This study examines the level of linkage between Nigeria and some selected African countries on one hand and the linkages between economic growth, inflation, and unemployment on the other hand, in these economies. The study covers the period between 2000 and 2019. The study aims to first measure the economic distance between Nigeria and these countries using the approach proposed by Mazurek. Second, the degree of spillovers was characterized between Nigeria and these countries, using a VAR-based spillover index method proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz. The main finding of the study is that the selected African economies are quite economically dispersed, and the level of cross-border spillover is negligible. This would suggest that growth in one economy has not been influenced by the growth in the other economies in the region. Given this, the study recommends that policies that will improve intra-African trade should be formulated. Such policies should incorporate a trade-by-barter-like framework, where Africa can demand what it produces and produce what it demands. Essentially, much more attention should be paid to the supply side of the market than the demand side following the Says law that increasing production will naturally result in proportionate increase in demand. To achieve this, enabling environment should be created to engender technological innovations while improving human and capital infrastructures. summary statistics of variables of interest. After testing for stationarity using ADF test statistics, he employed the Pearson Correlation to test for the degree of association between the indicators. He also tested for group cointegration using the Pedroni Panel Cointegration approach. Further, the results of the unconditional correlation are then used to evaluate both the relative and group economic distance. And finally, the level of connectedness was examined among countries of interest using Diebold and Yilmaz's (2009, 2012, 2014) spillover indices.
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