Risk-averse Estimation of Electric Heat Pump Power Consumption

An important aspect of the energy transition is the expected grid impact due to the abrupt increase of distributed electric generation and electric load demand. A part of this impact is going to be inflicted by the electrification of heating with heat pumps (HPs). Therefore, it is essential that the future power consumption of electric heating is estimated. This work develops a power estimation model without the use of heating demand data, needing only weather data and building & heat pump specifications. Moreover, it is characterized as a risk-averse estimation since it uses no optimal control and utilizes the heat pump output capacity curves giving simultaneous priority to the customers’ thermal comfort. Finally, it also estimates the power savings of electric heating due to future buildings’ new insulation and energy label norms, revealing their importance.