鉴于乌克兰战争,美俄关系的前景:“遏制2.0”。

Vladimir Trapara
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引用次数: 0

摘要

俄乌战争的爆发使俄美之间已经在进行的对抗加剧到毫无疑问的新冷战水平,与前一场冷战相比,这一冷战更有可能升级为两国之间的直接军事冲突。在拜登政府之后?结构失败?在2021年新乌克兰危机第一阶段的对抗中,华盛顿用新的“遏制2.0”取代了对俄罗斯的这种做法。类似于冷战时期的那次。作者从新古典现实主义的角度分析了美国和俄罗斯为什么会走到这一步,以及未来两国的对抗是否有缓和的前景。结论是,这种新形势的责任可以在双方(在他们占主导地位的修正主义外交政策思想中)以及系统因素中找到。(权力分配和地缘政治态势)的影响,还有乌克兰?年代的角色。从长远来看,即使在乌克兰战争结束后,上述状态仍将继续,但系统和单位层面因素的适当变化可能会缓和对抗。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The prospects of U.S.-Russian relations in the light of war in Ukraine: “Containment 2.0.”
The outbreak of Russo-Ukrainian War has sharpened already ongoing confrontation between Russia and the United States to the level of undoubtedly new cold war, which compared to the previous one has even greater potential of escalation towards the direct military conflict between the two powers. After the Biden administration?s failure to ?structure? this confrontation during the phase one of the new Ukrainian crisis in 2021, Washington replaced this approach towards Russia with a new one - ?containment 2.0.?, resembling the one from the Cold War. From neoclassical realist point of view, the author analyzes why the U.S. and Russia have come to this point, and are there prospects of taming their confrontation in the future. The conclusion is that responsibility for this new situation can be found on both sides (in their dominant revisionist foreign policy ideas), as well as in systemic factors? (power distribution and geopolitical posture) impacts, but also in Ukraine?s role. In the longer run, the described state will continue even after the war in Ukraine is over, yet the appropriate changes in both systemic and unit level factors could tame the confrontation.
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