气候变率对多洛阿多沃达区牲畜资源和牧民适应反应的影响——以埃塞俄比亚-索马里民族地区国家为例

Degu Zewdu
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摘要

这项研究是在埃塞俄比亚-索马里-民族-地区国家的多洛阿多沃勒达进行的。本研究的总体目标是了解气候变率对dolloaddoworeda埃塞俄比亚-索马里民族区域国牲畜系统和牧民适应反应的影响。从三个气象站收集了34年的降雨量和温度数据。社会经济数据采用结构化问卷从三个省随机抽取的150个样本家庭中收集。数据在excel中整理,使用SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Scientists)进行分析,并使用描述性统计进行分析。计算了1983 - 2019年的变异系数(CV)、降水浓度指数(PCI)和标准化降水异常(SRA)。家畜相关信息收集自Dollo Ado wooreda动物科学部。然后对研究期间的年降雨量与总气温进行回归和相关分析。研究结果表明,研究区降水和温度均表现出较高的时空变异性。各站年平均降水浓度指数(PCI)呈不规则分布。研究区经历了多次不同程度的旱涝灾害。牲畜种群数量与年降雨量呈正相关。而大多数家畜种群(骆驼和山羊除外)与研究区年平均气温呈负相关。适应措施包括流动性、去库存化、牲畜多样化、从畜牧转向农牧业以及外部支持。影响牧民适应决策的因素有:户主的年龄和性别、家庭规模、教育背景、获得信贷的机会和获得推广服务培训的机会。根据研究结果,建议农户应使用最耐旱的牲畜,并使其收入多样化。利用两条河流(达瓦河和热纳勒河)进行小规模灌溉也比只饲养牲畜更好。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impacts of Climate Variability on Livestock Resources and Pastoralist Adaptation Responses in Dollo Ado Woreda, the Case of Ethio-Somali National Regional State.
This study was conducted in Dollo Ado Woreda of Ethio- Somali-National-Regional State. The general objective of this study was to understand the impacts of climate variability on livestock system and pastoralist adaptation responses in DolloAddoWoredaEthio -Somali National Regional State. Rainfall and temperature data for 34 years were collected from three meteorological stations. Socio-economic data were collected using a structured esquestionnaire from150randomly selected sample households from three kebeles. Data were organized in excel and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS)and analyzed using descriptive statistics. Coefficients of variation (CV), Precipitation concentration index (PCI), and standardized rainfall anomalies (SRA) were calculated for the period 1983 - 2019. Livestock-related information was gathered from Dollo Ado Woreda Animal Science Department. Then regression and correlation were computed between annual rainfall amount and temperature total over the study period. The findings for this study indicated that both rainfall and temperature over the study area had shown high spatial and temporal variability. The average annual precipitation concentration index (PCI) showed an irregular distribution of annual rainfall for all stations. The results also indicated that the study area has experienced several drought events and flood years with different magnitudes. The number of livestock population was positively associated with annual rainfall. While most livestock populations (except Camel and Goat) were negatively associated with mean annual temperature over the study area. Adaptation practices included mobility, destocking, livestock diversification, shifting from pastoralist to agro-pastoralist, and external support. Factors affecting pastoralist adaptation decisions were; age and sex of household head, family size, educational background, access to credit, and access to extension services training. Based on the results, it is recommended that households should use the most drought tolerant animals and as well as diversify their income. It is also better to use small-scale irrigation with the two rivers (Dawa and Genalle) instead of rearing only livestock.
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