1982 ~ 2019年中国夏季极端降水事件及其变化

F. Wang, R. Duan, Y. F. Li, C. Tian
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引用次数: 0

摘要

基于GPCC资料,分析了1982—2019年中国极端降水的时空变化特征。同时,利用K-means对中国夏季降水趋势进行空间聚类特征评价。这是第一个基于夏季降水趋势的聚类。结果表明:1982 ~ 2019年中国夏季降水指数MK趋势的空间分布呈现出不同区域增减的趋势;极端降水主要分布在珠江流域、东南河流域、淮河流域和长江下游。近几十年来,塞尔维亚(东南河流域)的洪水风险,特别是由短期强降水引起的洪水风险可能会增加。通过K-means确定了四个集群,分别为稳定区(59%)、极端湿润区(5%)、干燥区(19%)和湿润区(17%)。结合降水指标多年平均值和4个聚类的空间分布特征,发现中国夏季降水具有“从湿到湿、从干到干”的特征。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Extreme Summer Precipitation Events in China and Their Changes during 1982 ~ 2019
This work analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of the extreme precipitation over China during the period 1982 to 2019, based on GPCC data. Meanwhile, the spatially clustering characteristic of China is evaluated based on the trends of summer precipitation through K-means. This is the first to clustering based on the trend of summer precipitation. The results indicated that the spatial distribution of MK trends for the summer precipitation indices over China during 1982 ~ 2019 shows increasing and decreasing trends in different regions. The extreme precipitation has been found mainly in Pearl River Basin, Southeastern River Basin, Huaihe River Basin, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The risk of floods in SERB (the Southeastern River Basin), especially those caused by short-term heavy precipitation, may increase in recent decades. Four clusters are identified through K-means, which can be named as stable (59%), extreme wetter (5%), dryer (19%), and wetter (17%) zones. Combining the spatial distribution of the multi-year average of precipitation indicators and four clusters, the ‘wet to wetter and dry to dryer’ is found in China summer precipitation.
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