均势理论视角下的法国与南海局势研究

Zhenyi Chen
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摘要

随着中国的崛起和中美关系的紧张升级,以英、法、德为首的欧洲国家越来越关注亚太地区(现称“印太”)的局势。其中,南中国海是中国、美国、东南亚国家和一些欧洲国家的主要争议地区之一。西方国家担心,中国军事力量的崛起将打破南海局势的稳定,改变大国之间的力量平衡。因此,他们试图通过结盟来平衡中国的崛起。在法国的印太战略中,法国旨在构建以法印澳同盟为核心的地区秩序,并与美国、日本和东南亚国家定期举行针对南海的军事演习。本文旨在研究法国在南海的活动和动机,并将南海局势置于均势理论的视角下,以中国、美国和法国为中心。有人会说,大国正在小心翼翼地维持南海的军事力量平衡,这种趋势很有可能在中长期内持续下去,特别是通过军事部署和战略联盟。关键词:南海、法国、中国、力量平衡理论、印太
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Study On The Situation Between France And The South China Sea From The Perspective Of Balance Of Power Theory
ABSTRACT With the rise of China and the escalation of tension between China and the United States, European countries led by Britain, France and Germany pay increasing attention to the regional situation in the Asia-Pacific (now known as "Indo-Pacific"). Among them, the South China Sea (SCS) is one of the main areas disputed by China, the United States, Southeast Asian countries and some European countries. Western countries are worried that the rise of China's military power will break the stability of the situation in SCS and alter the balance of power among major powers. Therefore, they tried to balance China's rise through alliance. In France's Indo-Pacific strategy, France aims to build a regional order with the alliance of France, India and Australia as the core, and regularly carry out military exercises targeting SCS with the United States, Japan and Southeast Asian countries. This paper aims to study the activities and motivation of France in the South China Sea, and put the situation in SCS under the perspective of Balance of Power Theory, focusing on China, America and France. It will be argued that great powers are carefully maintaining the balance of military power in SCS, and it is highly possible that this trend would still last in the middle and long term, particularly via military deployment and strategic alliances. KEYWORDS: South China Sea, France, China, Balance of Power theory, Indo-Pacific.
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