Autogenous adaptation and the distributional effects of heat

We examine the distributional effects of high temperature on labor productivity and the effectiveness of autogenous adaptation when capital investments such as air conditioning are not feasible. Using a longitudinal dataset of professional athletes in competitions during 2010‒2016 in China, we show that heat causes more uneven performance distributions, hurting the bottom performers and females more than top performers and males. More frequent heat reduces average performance and raises distributional inequality more than increases in average temperature, with the difference manifesting most significantly in inequality. Gaining experience and long-term acclimatization together can mitigate 82% of the heat impacts, demonstrating the potential of autogenous adaptation.