{"title":"5G HetNet部署场景下技术商业预测的扩散分析","authors":"Ashutosh Jha, Debashis Saha","doi":"10.4018/ijtd.288527","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Fifth-generation (5G) mobile services entail network densification, having Massive MIMO air interfaces operating at millimeter-wave (mmWave) frequencies. Techno-economic analysis for such a complex heterogeneous network (HetNet) is challenging due to uncertain future demand and technical hurdles for ensuring seamless nationwide coverage and capacity. We show in this work how a Logistic diffusion model may be used to forecast 5G adoption in a country and then utilize those forecasts to perform a techno-economic assessment of 5G deployment. The complete analysis is showcased for a European nation, namely France, for the period 2020-2030. We find that, theoretically, both the Capex and the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the considered 5G HetNets is cheaper (1/7th) than that for 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) networks, also translating into higher returns. The sensitivity analysis predicts the Average Revenue from Users (ARPU), spectrum acquisition costs, and spectrum bandwidth as the most influential variables for profitability.","PeriodicalId":208567,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Technol. Diffusion","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios\",\"authors\":\"Ashutosh Jha, Debashis Saha\",\"doi\":\"10.4018/ijtd.288527\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Fifth-generation (5G) mobile services entail network densification, having Massive MIMO air interfaces operating at millimeter-wave (mmWave) frequencies. Techno-economic analysis for such a complex heterogeneous network (HetNet) is challenging due to uncertain future demand and technical hurdles for ensuring seamless nationwide coverage and capacity. We show in this work how a Logistic diffusion model may be used to forecast 5G adoption in a country and then utilize those forecasts to perform a techno-economic assessment of 5G deployment. The complete analysis is showcased for a European nation, namely France, for the period 2020-2030. We find that, theoretically, both the Capex and the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the considered 5G HetNets is cheaper (1/7th) than that for 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) networks, also translating into higher returns. The sensitivity analysis predicts the Average Revenue from Users (ARPU), spectrum acquisition costs, and spectrum bandwidth as the most influential variables for profitability.\",\"PeriodicalId\":208567,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Int. J. Technol. Diffusion\",\"volume\":\"48 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Int. J. Technol. Diffusion\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.4018/ijtd.288527\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Int. J. Technol. Diffusion","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4018/ijtd.288527","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios
Fifth-generation (5G) mobile services entail network densification, having Massive MIMO air interfaces operating at millimeter-wave (mmWave) frequencies. Techno-economic analysis for such a complex heterogeneous network (HetNet) is challenging due to uncertain future demand and technical hurdles for ensuring seamless nationwide coverage and capacity. We show in this work how a Logistic diffusion model may be used to forecast 5G adoption in a country and then utilize those forecasts to perform a techno-economic assessment of 5G deployment. The complete analysis is showcased for a European nation, namely France, for the period 2020-2030. We find that, theoretically, both the Capex and the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the considered 5G HetNets is cheaper (1/7th) than that for 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) networks, also translating into higher returns. The sensitivity analysis predicts the Average Revenue from Users (ARPU), spectrum acquisition costs, and spectrum bandwidth as the most influential variables for profitability.
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